So during the week, I've been pretty busy with the whole school thing, and being a beast in life, and doing my preseason predictions. I had finished the regular season before kickoff last night, so please don't hold that against me. But without further ado, here are my 2009 preseason predictions. No fanfare, no stars surrounding a center-aligned title, none of that. Minimal (if any) analysis. Here goes.
AFC East
New England - 14-2
Miami - 6-10
New York Jets - 6-10
Buffalo - 5-11
With Tom Brady back, the Patriots will take its rightful place back on the top. Last year, the rest of the division benefited from an easy schedule, having played both West divisions, and thus inflating their record. As an odd-numbered year, Pennington will struggle or get hurt. One of the two. Bills are really inexperienced at the O-line.
AFC North
Pittsburgh - 14-2
Baltimore - 9-7
Cincinnati - 5-11
Cleveland - 4-12
The Super Bowl champs should challenge for the top seed in the AFC once again. While Rex Ryan's departure won't kill the Ravens, it'll be a little tougher on the defensive side. The lack of playmakers on offense can be a concern. Cincinnati is a big "if" at this point: this team will go as far as Carson Palmer does. If he does hold up, don't be surprised that they look for a playoff spot. Cleveland's got too much mess going on there.
AFC South
Indianapolis - 12-4
Tennessee - 11-5
Houston - 8-8
Jacksonville - 7-9
You would expect that with new coaches and coordinators, the Colts would fall off. But facing the AFC East and NFC West should help these teams' records and playoff aspirations. The Titans will be just fine without Haynesworth, so expect another dog fight atop the division. Jacksonville had terrible luck with injuries last year, but it always seems that they're never consistent on either side, regardless of injuries. The Texans are no slouch themselves, though I have them dropping a few games that could go either way. They could find themselves above .500 at season's end, and even slightly out of the playoff spot, with the state that a few divisions in the AFC are in.
AFC West
San Diego - 11-5
Oakland - 6-10
Denver - 6-10
Kansas City - 4-12
The brilliant AFC West. San Diego looks like the only real player in this division, and due to the lack of competition here, they may drop a few against proven foes. To be honest, either of the other three teams could wind up taking second place, but with Denver and Kansas City, I'm not quite sure how a base-defense switch will fare with them, seeing that both were very porous last season (Kansas City having 10 (!) sacks all 2008, and Denver seemed to allow yards by land and air (and if they were on sea, they'd be toast there too)). Kyle Orton won't be able to game-manage here with suspect offensive pieces. Same with Kansas City, with the loss of Gonzalez. Oakland...who knows what the heck is going on there.
NFC East
New York Giants - 11-5
Philadelphia Eagles - 10-6
Dallas Cowboys - 9-7
Washington Redskins - 9-7
A lot of changes swept through Big Blue this offseason with the losses of Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, and Derrick Ward. But this team has some immense depth on defense, and could see any of the receivers they have emerge. And the defense is still as awesome as ever, especially with Umenyiora coming back. Philly and Dallas are also gonna be in that mix for the division crown, but I see both teams struggling with consistency in this tussle. Don't sleep on the Redskins, either. They may have some aging pieces on the offensive line, and Clinton Portis isn't always healthy, but the defense should keep the team in games, and Jason Campbell finally has another year under the same offensive coordinator. Should be interesting to see this year develop.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers - 11-5
Minnesota Vikings - 11-5
Chicago Bears - 9-7
Detroit Lions - 2-14
Aaron Rodgers is ready for another year as Packers' quarterback, and after some changes on defense, this team should contend again, with more of those 50/50 games going their way. Brett Favre basically completes this Vikings' team (for now, at least), and they're ready to contend for a Super Bowl. But with a presumably easier schedule, the Packers should be right up there with Minnesota, edging out the Vikes due to a far-down-the-road tiebreaker. The Bears still have some issues in the receiving corps, but they'll contend with Jay Cutler at the helm. And the most important news coming out of this division (even moreso than Favre v. Packers): the Detroit Lions will be infinitely better than they were last season. Who did I have them beating? I hope nobody back home kills me for this, but it's...the Redskins. And the Browns.
NFC South
Atlanta 10-6
Carolina 9-7
New Orleans 8-8
Tampa Bay 3-13
I really like what I see from Atlanta, but I don't know what to expect from the defense. That's what worries me about pretty much everyone in this division, except maybe the Panthers. I expect them to get it together down the stretch, though. Carolina starts off strong, but run into a tough stretch where the Patriots, Vikings, and Giants await them near the end of the season, and I can't see them winning any more than one of those three, if any at all. Drew Brees and the Saints can put it up with the best of them, but a big question mark is whether the defense can perform up to par. And at this point, the Buccaneers are just a mess. New coach, uncertain quarterback situation, offensive coordinator fired before the first game based on differing opinion of the head coach, loss of Derrick Brooks...they may as well wear the creamsicle jerseys all season.
NFC West
Seattle - 9-7
Arizona - 8-8
San Francisco - 6-10
St. Louis - 3-13
Atrocious. Absolutely atrocious. At one point in my mind-simulated season, Arizona and Seattle were tied at the top of teh division with 4-5 records. FOUR WINS AND FIVE LOSSES. Now outside of that, let's just say that even though the Cardinals made the Super Bowl, that was a case of them "getting hot at the right time." If you recall, the Cardinals were 9-7 and won the division because they were the only team not to suck enough to change coaches, or have injuries ravage their receiving corps, or the like. The Super Bowl losers curse strikes here. And speaking of injuries ravaging a team, that's basically what happened to the Seahawks last year. You can't get much worse than 4-12 with a team with this talent. They're coming on strong this year with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck (and hopefully a serviceable Seneca Wallace at backup). I'm just not buying the 49ers right now. Shaun Hill did well last year when he stepped in, but with an improved division altogether (even though the improvement is slight), and Michael Crabtree just being a moron (or genius, depending on how you look at it), they'd be fortunate to get back to 7-9. As for the Rams...I just feel sorry for Steven Jackson. It doesn't help that the NFC West has to see the NFC North and AFC South this year.
Now, who's going to the playoffs, and why?
In the AFC, the first round byes go to:
New England - 14-2
Pittsburgh - 14-2
New England wins the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh because of a better record against common opponents (New England beats Denver, but Pittsburgh loses to them)
The other division winners are:
Indianapolis - 12-4
San Diego - 11-5
The Wild Card berths belong to:
Tennessee - 11-5
Baltimore - 9-7 (Could have been 10-6, but because I have Houston losing to New England earlier in the day, the Ravens won't likely go hard in their final game against Oakland)
As for the NFC, the first round byes are:
New York Giants - 11-5
Green Bay Packers - 11-5
Surprising? Perhaps. I couldn't see anyone breaking away from the pack in the NFC East, and the Packers were actually tied with the Vikings atop the North, but beat them out because of a better record against conference opponents. As for this tiebreaker, the Giants had a better strength of victory.
Other division winners:
Atlanta Falcons - 10-6
Seattle Seahawks - 9-7
Wild Card in the NFC:
Minnesota Vikings - 11-5
Philadelphia Eagles - 10-6
Here's how my playoffs played out...the first round:
(3) Indianapolis defeats (6) Baltimore
(5) Tennessee defeats (4) San Diego
(3) Atlanta defeats (6) Philadelphia
(5) Minnesota defeats (4) Seattle
Divisional round:
(2) Pittsburgh defeats (3) Indianapolis
(1) New England defats (5) Tennessee
(3) Atlanta defeats (2) Green Bay
(1) New York defeats (5) Minnesota
Conference championships:
(1) New England defeats (2) Pittsburgh
(1) New York defeats (3) Atlanta
Super Bowl XLIV:
New England defeats New York
And that's the end of my preseason picks. Have a happy season, folks.
~KG~
